Probabilistic Multiple Linear Regression Modeling for Tropical Cyclone Intensity
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probabilistic Multiple Linear Regression Modeling for Tropical Cyclone Intensity
The authors describe the development and verification of a statistical model relating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity to the local large-scale environment. A multiple linear regression framework is used to estimate the expected intensity of a tropical cyclone given the environmental and storm conditions. The uncertainty of the estimate is constructed from the empirical distribution of model err...
متن کاملProbabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity from a 1 Multiple - Linear Regression Model
6 The authors describe the development and verification of a statistical model relating tropical 7 cyclone intensity to the local large-scale environment. A multiple linear regression framework 8 is used to estimate the expected intensity of a tropical cyclone given the environmental 9 and storm conditions. The uncertainty of the estimate is constructed from the empirical 10 distribution of mod...
متن کاملA Multiple Linear Regression Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation from Satellite Infrared Images
An objectively trained model for tropical cyclone intensity estimation from routine satellite infrared images over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean is presented in this paper. The intensity is correlated to some critical signals extracted from the satellite infrared images, by training the 325 tropical cyclone cases from 1996 to 2007 typhoon seasons. To begin with, deviation angles and radial pro...
متن کاملAutoregressive Modeling for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Climatology
An autoregressive model is developed to simulate the climatological distribution of global tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The model consists of two components: a regression-based deterministic component that advances the TC intensity in time and depends on the storm state and surrounding large-scale environment and a stochastic forcing. Potential intensity, deep-layer mean vertical shear, and...
متن کاملHuman influence on tropical cyclone intensity.
Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although gr...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2015
ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-14-00171.1